
PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast
Direct from the Chief Investment Office (CIO) of Deutsche Bank's Private Bank, this Weekly Investment Outlook is designed to brief you on views about the week ahead. Each week, a senior member of the CIO team summarizes the most significant events expected, how they might affect markets, and the broader implications for the global economy. The podcast provides investment insights and forecasts, with disclaimers about the nature of the content.
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Watching for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
Yields on long-end U.S. Treasuries have recently climbed to multi-year highs, and it’s a pattern that is being seen around the world, notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “This is not just only a U.S. phenomenon”, Deepak says, pointing to falling bond prices and climbing rates in Germany, Japan, the U.K. and other regions. High levels of government debt,

Beyond Iran: why investors remain optimistic
Geopolitical tensions have continued to dominate headlines in recent weeks, but markets appear to be taking a broader view. In this week's edition of the CIO Weekly Investment Outlook, Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer at Deutsche Bank Private Bank, discusses why, despite ongoing uncertainty, "it's not all about the Iran situation" for investors.Christian explores the forces helpi

Big earnings growth, and not just in the US
Big tech earnings in the US have stolen a lot of headlines, but that should not distract from gains being made in other sectors and regions, says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO. “The rally this year is not solely based on artificial intelligence and big tech companies. We have also other regions joining the earnings party,” Dirk says. “It’s good to see this broadening out.”US inflati

Volatility amid strong fundamentals
Stock markets have had some stumbles recently, with selloffs in the technology sector followed by rapid recoveries, but the fundamentals of the AI rally have not changed, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets. “The reality is these stocks have had incredible runs so far this year. So investors are constantly asking themselves whether they've become a little bit too optim

Markets caught in the crosswinds
Geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions and key economic data releases are all competing for investors' attention. In this week's episode of PERSPECTIVES, Markus Müller, the Private Bank's Global Head of the CIO Office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability, discusses the renewed Iran conflict, the outlook for inflation and growth, and what investors should watch in the week ahead.M

Watching for earnings from big tech, and their capex plans
Second-quarter earnings got off to a strong start in the US with solid results from big banks, but now markets will be focused on what the technology hyperscalers have to say about both earnings and their spending plans, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "We're getting closer to 1 trillion, maybe in a year or so, a trillion dollars that will be spent by a handful of companies in

Earnings preview, and a new Fed chief makes his mark
Hostilities flared in the Middle East last week, and oil prices took note, but not to the degree that they did when the war began, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The clear transmission mechanism of those hostilities tends to be first oil and then it moves into the rates market,” Deepak says. “I think we need to live with this for some time to come.

What to expect in the second half of 2026
The first half of 2026 saw markets power through a great deal of geopolitical uncertainty, and now earnings will be important to watch as the second half gets under way, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “We are positive for the markets because we think there's still some room to go for corporate earnings,” Christian says, noting that expectations for resu

The stock sectors to favour now
Uncertainty around the ultimate impact of AI on various business models has led to a degree of uneven stock performance, but there are certain sectors that could lead, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “We remain bullish on technology, communication services, industrials, materials, and healthcare.”There has been some complacency in energy markets sinc

Markets keep tabs on Iran negotiations, and a new Fed chair
A relief rally followed the US-Iran preliminary peace deal, as “the agreement provides a clear relief for global energy markets”, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets – though he notes that any stumbles in the peace process “could quickly reverse the recent decline in oil prices and also bring volatility back in the global markets.”Meanwhile, the first Federal Reserve p

What comes after mega IPOs?
Record-topping IPOs in the technology sector do not necessarily mean it is time to radically alter portfolios, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets. "I would be a bit cautious about assuming a mechanical rotation out of existing technology leaders. These companies remain highly cash generative and also central to index construction,” Jacky says. “I think any shift is mo

ECB watch, with inflation back in focus
Markets are expecting the European Central Bank to lift interest rates this week, but rates may still have higher to go, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “The inflation pressures are real, as we can see in the data, and not just in Europe”, Markus says, adding that the US central bank is less likely to raise rates, but p

Jobs report and inflation data in focus
In this week's podcast, Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, comments on how markets have endured a great deal of uncertainty around the Middle East conflict without becoming overly reactive. “I think the really good news is that the markets have reacted in a very rational way,” he says, noting that interest-rate expectations are still shifting as a result. “Even

Stocks and bonds are telling different stories
Stock markets and bond markets are being swayed by different forces to a considerable degree, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “For equity markets, AI is the main story. For bond markets, it’s what’s happening to energy prices.” The technology sector is likely to continue its leadership of equity markets, Deepak says, noting that AI infrastructure spe

Markets look past earnings for the next catalyst
First-quarter earnings results are already drifting into the rear-view mirror, and that is likely to put more focus on geopolitics and economic performance, says emerging markets CIO Dr. Jacky Tang. “From a risk sentiment perspective, markets are less focused on headlines right now, but more on whether geopolitical risks remain contained,” Jacky says, noting that with crude trading above $100 a ba

Will price rises spread beyond energy?
The Private Bank’s CIO team has named its base case scenario for the Middle East conflict a "fragile ceasefire", says emerging markets CIO Dr. Jacky Tang. "We expect the majority of oil and gas flows to normalise by the end of the second quarter, although with recurring disruptions and heightened geopolitical risk premiums”, Jacky says. “In this scenario, oil prices could likely ease, while volati

What comes after April’s equities surge?
The S&P 500 in April had its strongest showing since the Covid vaccine breakthrough, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. "Both from a macro and corporate earnings perspective, things look great," Deepak says, noting that a lot of institutional investors shifted to more bullish positions during the month.First-quarter US GDP data also showed strength,
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