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Ernstfall – What if Russia Attacks NATO? Inside a German Wargame

WELT 3 Folgen Jul 22, 2026

This podcast simulates a Russian attack on NATO's eastern flank, with German politicians, military officials, and experts role-playing the German government's response. The wargame, originally conducted in German, sparked international debate, leading to this English-language version. Over five episodes, listeners hear a crisis simulation that many European leaders hope never becomes reality. The podcast is produced by WELT, a German news outlet.

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Episode 5: Moment of Truth Jul 22, 2026 2667 The wargame is heading toward a decisive moment. In our fictional scenario, Russian troops are digging in. And Europe is struggling to find a response that neither triggers panic at home nor signals weakness abroad. The overarching question is: Who is really in control of the escalation? Episode 5 focuses on the battle for the narrative and the political costs of military decisions. A large-scale

Episode 4: Europe Without America Jul 15, 2026 2350 Europe's post-war order is facing its most severe test yet in our simulation. While the fictional German cabinet searches for a way out, the Red Team playing the Kremlin has a plan ready — one that targets Germany's role as NATO's logistical hub. In the Baltic Sea, Berlin faces a dilemma, and the ministers and their advisors are forced to take a long, hard look at themselves, as the Chancellor put

Episode 3: Emergency Powers Jul 8, 2026 2377 What happens when a looming escalation suddenly becomes reality? In our wargame, Russian troops have entered southern Lithuania, blocking the only land corridor connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO territory. Berlin responds, seeking to keep the state functioning. But its measures are aimed primarily at maintaining stability at home rather than confronting Moscow. In Episode 3 of "Ern

Episode 2: Invasion Jul 1, 2026 1891 In Episode 2, Germany’s crisis cabinet tries to move from reacting to taking the initiative. The Blue Team orders military exercises in Lithuania to demonstrate resolve. But the Bundeswehr is still in the process of building up its permanent brigade there. At the same time, the German government runs into another obstacle: Germany’s federal system requires constant coordination between Berlin an

Episode 1: Deception Jul 1, 2026 1856 Imagine this: It is October 2026. The day has barely begun when Germany’s federal government is confronted with its gravest security crisis in decades. In a fictional scenario, Russia is threatening NATO’s eastern flank while the United States is reluctant to become involved. To understand how Germany would respond under these conditions, WELT, together with the German Wargaming Center at Helmut

Trailer: Ernstfall – What if Russia Attacks NATO? Jun 29, 2026 161 What if Russia attacked NATO? How would Germany respond? And where are our weaknesses? We wanted answers. In a wargame, we simulate an attack on NATO’s eastern flank. Politicians, former military officials, and experts take on the roles of the German government for a day. A second team plays the Kremlin. The wargame triggered an international debate. It's the reason we decided to publish our